Battleground State Poll Analysis: Part Three - Rasmussen and Survey USA
Part Three (read Part One and Part Two here) of my battleground state poll analysis continues with the final polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports (RR) and Survey USA (SUSA).
These two firms utilize automated telephone polling. In other words, they do not use human telephone interviewers.
The battleground states selected for this study are Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All results are listed with the support of President George W. Bush first and the support of Senator John F. Kerry second.
Florida:
Results: 52-47
RR: 50-47
SUSA: 49-48
Iowa
Results: 50-49
RR: n/a
SUSA: 47-50
Michigan
Results: 48-51
RR: 46-50
SUSA: 47-50
Minnesota
Results: 48-51
RR: 47-48
SUSA: n/a
New Hampshire
Results: 49-50
RR: n/a
SUSA: n/a
New Mexico
Results: 50-49
RR: 48-44
SUSA: n/a
Ohio
Results: 51-49
RR: 50-46
SUSA: 49-47
Pennsylvania
Results: 49-51
RR: 47-49
SUSA: 48-49
Wisconsin
Results: 49-50
RR: n/a
SUSA: n/a
Predicted Winner
RR had a record of 6-0-0 and SUSA had a record of 4-1-0. Advantage RR.
Average Error In Spread
RR had an average error of 1.7 points. SUSA had an average error of 1.8 points. No advantage.
Bias Toward Each Candidate
RR underestimated Bush's support by an average of 1.7 points and underestimated Kerry's support by an average of 2.3 points. SUSA underestimated Bush's support by an average of 2.0 points and underestimated Kerry's support by an average of 0.6 points. Thus, RR had a pro-Bush bias of 0.6 points and SUSA had a pro-Kerry bias of 1.4 points. Advantage RR.
Conclusion
Although this analysis contains a fair amount of rounding (and rounding of rounded numbers) and is based on state vote totals that are subject to change as absentee ballots are counted and other revisions are made, both firms scored well. However, RR has the advantage due to predicting all of the correct winners and a slightly lower bias toward a candidate. Nonetheless, SUSA's results are solid as well.
These two firms utilize automated telephone polling. In other words, they do not use human telephone interviewers.
The battleground states selected for this study are Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All results are listed with the support of President George W. Bush first and the support of Senator John F. Kerry second.
Florida:
Results: 52-47
RR: 50-47
SUSA: 49-48
Iowa
Results: 50-49
RR: n/a
SUSA: 47-50
Michigan
Results: 48-51
RR: 46-50
SUSA: 47-50
Minnesota
Results: 48-51
RR: 47-48
SUSA: n/a
New Hampshire
Results: 49-50
RR: n/a
SUSA: n/a
New Mexico
Results: 50-49
RR: 48-44
SUSA: n/a
Ohio
Results: 51-49
RR: 50-46
SUSA: 49-47
Pennsylvania
Results: 49-51
RR: 47-49
SUSA: 48-49
Wisconsin
Results: 49-50
RR: n/a
SUSA: n/a
Predicted Winner
RR had a record of 6-0-0 and SUSA had a record of 4-1-0. Advantage RR.
Average Error In Spread
RR had an average error of 1.7 points. SUSA had an average error of 1.8 points. No advantage.
Bias Toward Each Candidate
RR underestimated Bush's support by an average of 1.7 points and underestimated Kerry's support by an average of 2.3 points. SUSA underestimated Bush's support by an average of 2.0 points and underestimated Kerry's support by an average of 0.6 points. Thus, RR had a pro-Bush bias of 0.6 points and SUSA had a pro-Kerry bias of 1.4 points. Advantage RR.
Conclusion
Although this analysis contains a fair amount of rounding (and rounding of rounded numbers) and is based on state vote totals that are subject to change as absentee ballots are counted and other revisions are made, both firms scored well. However, RR has the advantage due to predicting all of the correct winners and a slightly lower bias toward a candidate. Nonetheless, SUSA's results are solid as well.
posted by TandaPundit at 8.11.04
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