Friday, July 15, 2005

Just One Man's Opinion - 15 July 2005

by JMac

ALERT - ALERT - ALERT :

Oil prices are trending down. If oil settles below $55 there are some QUALITY stocks that are poised to move up QUICKLY. Be ready to pull the trigger on : Dupont, Eastman Chemical, Dow Chemical, Southwest Airlines (NICE quarter guys !), Alcoa, the railroads, Yellow Frieght, Disney (finally! the war is over), Cendant and PACCAR.

With oil @ $55, fair value on the S & P - 1245.

STOCK UPGRADES -

Coke - expanding its juice business, buying back stock, its now a BUY.

Southwest Airlines - Who says an airline cannot make money with oil at $61? (They hedged their fuel purchases). They just moved into the Orlando market, which they WILL dominate (bye! bye! Delta). PERSONAL NOTE: I fly SWA twice a year to Vegas. In the last ten trips they have been on time twice and EARLY on the remainder. On occassion my luggage beat me to the carousel ! It is now a BUY.

GOOGLE WATCH - I now think there is a 50/50 chance Google will reach Jim Cramer's $350 prediction. However at this p/e ratio it does not meet my screen. Look for Microsoft to somehow get involved here.

STOCK DOWNGRADES -

Apple - nice quarter, but ipod sales levelling off, now a HOLD
Chevron/Texaco - fairly valued at $57, now a HOLD.

COMING SOON - "QUALITY STOCKS THAT ARE SELLING BELOW FAIR MARKET VALUE"

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